Moloch, the Meta-Crisis, and Integrated Nuclear Deterrence

Authors: The Media Ecology and Strategy Analysis Group (MESA)

Research Team Members: Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University); Dr. Sumin Shin (Oklahoma State University); Dr. Aysa Cooley (Oklahoma State University); Dr. Rosemary Avance (Oklahoma State University)

Student Researchers: Dru Norton, Kelli Leech, Campbell Clark

This publication was released as part of the SMA project “21st Century Strategic Deterrence Frameworks.” (SDF) For more information regarding this project, please click here.

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This project examines global perspectives on evolving nuclear challenges and deterrence approaches by analyzing discourse across media, arms control experts, and social platforms in major nuclear-armed nations. Using computational analysis and qualitative coding, it compiles insights from news articles, arms control blogs, and Twitter commentary over the past decade. The goal is to gain an expansive view of public conversations regarding nuclear weapons issues to inform strategic planning and assessment of the strategic environment. By compiling diverse qualitative data points, the project aims to identify areas of alignment and mismatch between official deterrence policies and public discourse that could illuminate whether existing strategies sufficiently account for media, arms control experts, and public perceptions of emergent risks. The key findings include:

Discussion Trends and Global Landscape:

• Recent discussions on integrated nuclear warfare show a notably negative trend surpassing expected pessimism levels.
• The emotional nature of discussions reflects mixed optimistic and pessimistic views, with limited neutrality.
• China and the US dominate news and arms control blogs; India and Pakistan feature in hybrid warfare Twitter posts.
• Ukraine’s prominence emphasizes fears of nuclear catastrophe due to Russian aggression.
• Most nations receive consistently positive coverage for navigating integrated warfare complexities.
• Positive depiction suggests well-received efforts in managing evolving security challenges.
• Different countries have distinct nuclear weapon concerns; the global landscape is marked by crises and power competition.

Term Associations and Social Media Patterns:

• Term associations were analyzed across news, blogs, and Twitter data.
• “Nuclear war” co-occurs frequently with “sanctions” and “arms race,” linking conflicts to economic and military strategies.
• “Deterrence” is linked to “nuclear war” and “sanctions,” highlighting its assumed ties to aggression prevention.
• “Hypersonic missiles” and “AI” interactions are sparse.
• “Deterrence” and “nuclear war” often co-occur in social media, suggesting correlations.
• “Artificial intelligence” and “deterrence” are relevant.
• “Cyber warfare” and “information warfare” converge.

Multipolar Power Competition:

• Multi-crisis landscape coincides with a shift towards multipolar power competition.
• Technological and political shifts spawn both advancements and global threats.
• The dichotomy of Western liberalism fuels achievements and challenges.
• Multipolar power competition hastens global challenges, including nuclear arms control.
• The rise of multipolar power competition destabilizes, revealing global disparities.

Hybrid Warfare and Challenges:

• Hybrid warfare emerges, enabled by technology and economic interconnectivity.
• Hybrid activities blur lines between conflict and below-threshold operations.
• Cyber warfare targets include military systems, energy grids, and nuclear command structures.
• “Nuclear entanglement” has arisen with cyber incursions potentially causing nuclear escalation.
• An erosion of trust among global powers is hampering arms control and norms.

New Arms Race and Escalation Concerns:

• A new arms race, tied to technology and mistrust, is underway with advanced weapons.
• Russia and China are developing next-gen nuclear weaponry with unique capabilities.
• Low-yield nuclear weapons are blurring the line between conventional and nuclear forces.
• An increased risk of fantastical weapons with hypersonic speeds and enhanced evasion abilities.
• Overt nuclear threats are more frequent and reflect broader fears and instabilities.
• An erosion of arms control architecture contributes to dangerous escalations.

The Complexity of Nuclear Decision-Making:

• Nuclear weapons decision-making is complex, involving political, conventional, and strategic considerations.
• US decision-making is mainly political, with limited checks on Presidential orders.
• China maintains a “no first use” policy, focusing on defensive posture and disarmament.
• Russia and the US are more ambiguous on usage, facing challenges from new technologies.
• India, Pakistan, and AUKUS alliance add complexity to deterrence strategies.
• Integration of AI and cyber capabilities raise new risks in nuclear conflicts.

Challenges in Addressing Arms Control:

• The international system fails to address the risks of an arms race and nuclear enhancements.
• The UN is ineffective in regulating nuclear armament and the degradation of global conditions.
• Disarmament organizations struggle to convert public opinion into action.
• Lack of attention to nuclear threats due to broader meta-crises like climate change, conflicts, and terrorism.
• Pathways for arms control are needed, including a comprehensive treaty to account for emerging capabilities.
• Transparency is crucial to build trust and facilitate international cooperation.

Conclusions:

• There is an urgent need for a coordinated international response to nuclear proliferation and arms race escalations.
• The study findings emphasize the need for transparency, public support, and cooperation among nations to reduce the threats of nuclear warfare.

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This publication was released as part of the SMA project “21st Century Strategic Deterrence Frameworks.” (SDF) For more information regarding this project, please click here.